#比特币反弹 Yilihua: Bitcoin rebounds to $85k! The next major correction could be the last chance to buy the dip; key levels are here
🔥Yilihua: Bitcoin rebounds to $85k! The next major correction could be the last chance to buy the dip; key levels are here📅 Latest insights on April 21, posted by Liquid Capital founder Yilihua (JackYi) on X platform, providing a detailed analysis of the current crypto market trend, attracting widespread attention. He emphasized in the article: the current market is in a rebound phase, not a reversal, with a possible final dip-buying opportunity in the medium term.
1. Core view: Rebound up to $85k for Bitcoin, then buy the dip after a large correction
Yilihua has consistently maintained the view that it’s a rebound, not a reversal, focusing on where the rebound will reach. He initially predicted Bitcoin could rebound to $85k but stressed that no one can pinpoint the exact timing; the most important thing is not to predict the absolute price but to set profit-taking points based on personal expectations and risk management strategies.
Specifically:
Rebound target: Bitcoin at $85k, Ethereum at $3,000–$3,300
Trading strategy: Swing trading + spot buying the dip, emphasizing spot trading and no leverage
Medium-term forecast: another large correction may occur, presenting an excellent final dip-buying opportunity. He believes the crypto market still has potential for a bull run, with 2026 expected to see a major bull market, making the secondary market the best time for bottom-fishing and primary investments.
From a trading and cycle perspective, the market is in an adjustment phase, waiting for an extreme bottom, which could be the last chance to get on board before the cycle shifts.
2. Four potential trigger factors: what could cause a major correction? Yilihua clearly states that the trigger for a large correction could come from four areas:
1️⃣ US stocks retreat from all-time highs
2️⃣ Risk assets broadly decline
3️⃣ Oil prices spiral out of control
4️⃣ Inflation data exceeds expectations, causing the Fed to abandon rate cuts or even consider rate hikes
US stocks: recently hit record highs, warning signs of correction have sounded Last Friday, the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high, and Goldman Sachs trading desk immediately issued a warning — the market has reached a correction threshold.
John Flood, head of US trading at Goldman Sachs, explicitly stated: the market is fully prepared for a correction. On April 20, US stocks began to decline: all three major indices fell—Dow down 0.01%, S&P 500 down 0.24%, Nasdaq down 0.26%—ending a 13-day winning streak. Large tech stocks generally declined, and crypto-related stocks fell further. Goldman Sachs analysis pointed out that this rally was mainly driven by short covering rather than fundamentals, and correction pressure is building.
Oil prices: Middle East tensions escalate, crude oil surges nearly 7% On April 20, the US military fired on and seized an Iranian cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, prompting Iran to reassert control over the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil and natural gas prices to soar.
That day, WTI crude futures jumped 6.87%, closing at $89.61 per barrel; Brent crude rose 5.64%, closing at $95.48 per barrel. Some institutions warned that if the situation worsens, oil prices could gradually rise to $105–$115 per barrel. Yilihua judges that if oil prices spiral out of control, inflation will transmit to the Fed’s monetary policy, further suppressing the crypto market.
Inflation: Oil price shocks begin to show, rate hike fears intensify Oil price surges are already reflected in inflation data. Canada’s March CPI annual rate surged to 2.4%, the highest since late last year, mainly driven by soaring gasoline prices. The market generally expects US CPI month-over-month to reach 0.9%–1.1% this week, up sharply from 0.5% previously.
More concerning is that Yilihua worries that “terrifying inflation data” could cause the Fed to completely abandon rate cuts or even consider hikes. Although current CME data shows a 0% probability of rate hikes in April, the market has begun pricing in this risk—if the Fed’s policy outlook reverses, it could fundamentally impact crypto valuation systems.
Risk asset linkage: high correlation between crypto and US stocks When Nasdaq and S&P 500 weaken, crypto concept stocks generally decline, often more than the market. As high-risk assets, cryptocurrencies are extremely sensitive to geopolitical news. Yilihua explicitly states that if a high-level US stock correction triggers a broad decline in risk assets, the crypto market will find it hard to decouple.
3. Why does Yilihua emphasize "rebound, not reversal"?
Yilihua defines the current market as a rebound rather than a trend reversal, based on:
- The macro environment has not fundamentally improved: the Fed has not shifted to easing, liquidity remains tight
- Market structure is still repairing: a new upward trend driven by liquidity has not yet formed
- There is a risk of a secondary bottom: before confirming a bottom, a large correction may occur first
His trading approach is therefore: swing trading, mainly spot, no leverage, gradually taking profits during the rebound while holding cash for the final dip-buying opportunity.
The core logic of this strategy is: capital preservation takes priority over profit, maintaining strength amid volatility.
4. Other market voices Yilihua is not the only trader expecting a correction. Another popular trader, Crypto Jack, issued a more extreme warning—due to US-Iran tensions, Bank of Japan liquidity operations, and Bitcoin’s failure to break through the $75,000 resistance, Bitcoin could first drop to $48,000 before rebounding in May.
Goldman Sachs trading desk also explicitly warned: current market leverage is as high as 310%, in the 98th percentile over five years, with extremely crowded positions. Once sentiment reverses, deleveraging pressure will be unleashed.
Yilihua’s perspective reflects a seasoned market participant’s typical cycle thinking: firmly believing in a long-term bull market, managing risks and seeking opportunities by identifying short- and medium-term market rhythms. He sets key price targets during rebounds as profit-taking points, while always waiting for a "final correction" as the ultimate dip-buying chance. However, he repeatedly emphasizes that “no one can hit the exact point,” and has openly shared past experiences of missing out on major bull markets due to early selling. Investors should tailor their risk tolerance, set reasonable stop-loss and take-profit levels, and stay optimistic about the long term while managing short-term risks.
This article’s views are compiled from Yilihua (JackYi)’s posts on the X platform and public media reports, with data current as of April 21, 2026.
📌 The above content does not constitute investment advice; markets carry risks, decisions should be cautious.
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