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Next week, the Chinese Spring Festival and the Fed meeting are coming, there will definitely be a big market.
Next Tuesday, A-shares will be closed. It is normal for the market to become restless on Monday night, and it is also normal for the main force to pull up the market. The Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate results at 3 am on Thursday. Not cutting interest rates in January meets expectations, with a 98.9% probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged. This bearish expectation has been fully digested after December 18, so the landing will not lead to further decline. The key is to see if Powell's speech releases information about the expected interest rate cuts in March and beyond. As long as it is mentioned, there will be a short-term surge, coinciding with the Spring Festival market. However, there will generally be fluctuations before and after the meeting results are announced.
It is reported that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in March this year is currently 27.1%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in May is 38.4%. Some institutions believe that the rate cut this year will be postponed after May, so the probability of a rate cut in March is not high at present. It will enter a period of callback in mid-March. The expectation of a rate cut in May is high, so there may be an advance digestion of the good expectations in April.
Therefore, after the February rally, there is usually a retreat in mid-March.#Gate.io Reserves Surpass $10 Billion #GT Hits ATH #SOL Trend Analysis