#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 How long can this fruitful orchard of U.S. stocks continue to harvest? Will it last until Q4 2026?

Why is the U.S. stock market performing so well? Rising for consecutive years, soaring higher and higher!
If we compare the U.S. stocks to a large orchard, the main stock index is the total yield of the entire orchard, and stocks are the individual fruit trees.
The U.S. stock market has been rising for several years without stopping, with bumper harvests every year.
In summary, there are five main reasons:
1. The crazy results of the AI giant trees (the key, the main force of the orchard)

In the past, ordinary fruit trees in the orchard couldn't produce many fruits in a year.
A few years ago, new AI varieties of fruit trees appeared (big companies like Nvidia, Microsoft).
These trees are especially fruitful; the more fruits (profits) they produce, the more orders come in like people lining up to buy fruit.
Nvidia: specializes in the essential fertilizer (chips) for fruit trees;
All AI trees worldwide need to buy fertilizer from it, making huge profits.
Microsoft, Google: grow new varieties of fruits (paid software) with AI, with people paying daily.
The more the trees earn and the more fruits they sell, the more buyers are willing to pay a premium, pushing the tree prices higher and higher.
Additionally, the bosses earn money and don’t keep it in banks; they buy back some saplings (stock repurchases), which makes the remaining trees produce more fruits, and the tree’s value continues to rise.
Ordinary old trees grow steadily, but these ten or so giant trees are so large that they support the total output of the entire orchard, causing the overall index to trend upward.

2. The US dollar is like a great river flowing, with global water sources pouring into the U.S. orchard (funding source)

The dollar is like the universal river water worldwide; all international trade settles in this water.
Other countries earn dollars from trade, but when they hold too much, they face a dilemma:
Storing it in their own country’s banks risks devaluation (money losing value),
Storing in U.S. savings (US Treasuries) yields low interest, so the best choice is to pour it into the U.S. orchard by buying stocks (investing in US stocks).
When global disasters or conflicts occur (geopolitical instability), countries fear their own lands suffering losses, so they withdraw their river water and rush into the U.S. orchard for safety.
The more water flows in, the higher land prices and seedling prices in the orchard naturally rise year after year.
U.S. workers get paid wages, like a small bucket of water each month, which is forcibly poured into the orchard (401k retirement funds).
This retirement money is for lifelong security and cannot be withdrawn all at once; it is replenished monthly.
Whether the market dips slightly (minor stock declines), ordinary people still pour water monthly; during dips, they buy more seedlings cheaply.
Over the long term, with continuous new water sources, the orchard rarely faces large-scale droughts or collapses.
Prices dip briefly but quickly rebound, maintaining steady, slow growth over time.

3. The orchard annually removes dead trees, leaving only high-quality seedlings (the index improves with nurturing)

The U.S. stock orchard has strict rules:
Dead trees that are infested, unfruitful, or rotten (loss-making, fake, or failing companies) are uprooted and removed from the orchard;
New high-yield varieties (emerging high-quality large companies) are immediately transplanted into the orchard.
Unlike some orchards where rotten trees linger and drag down the harvest,
This orchard keeps only vigorous, thriving trees, so the overall yield improves year by year, and the index naturally moves upward steadily.

4. The government helps loosen the soil and fertilize, creating a comfortable environment for the trees (macro-level safety net)

U.S. citizens spend heavily to support the economy, with the government periodically cutting taxes and providing subsidies—like giving farmers fertilizer subsidies.
When people have money, they keep buying; shops and factories (publicly listed companies) have no trouble selling and making profits.
The government invests in infrastructure and brings factories back home, improving the land of the entire orchard.
Initially, people worried about natural disasters or frost (economic recession), but with fertile land and wealthy farmers, the frost never came.
Investors are confident and continue to plant seedlings, causing stock prices to keep rising.

5. When things reach an extreme, a reversal is inevitable—what is the turning point of the orchard?
Hidden risks (orchard hazards)

Currently, the rise in fruit prices relies on just a few super AI giant trees; thousands of ordinary small trees in the orchard haven't increased in value much (K-shaped divergence).
If:
Suddenly, a heatwave or drought occurs (inflation surges), and the entity managing the orchard (the Federal Reserve) raises interest rates to cut off water supply,
Commodity prices soar—costs of farming globally skyrocket, and the river water (dollar) dries up, no longer flowing into the U.S. orchard chain reaction.
Previously, the dollar was like global river water; countries earn dollars through trade, and excess water flows into the U.S. stock orchard.
Crude oil, coal, grains—essential seeds, fertilizers, and tools—see skyrocketing prices, causing global farming costs to explode.
When commodities become too expensive, countries drain their dollar water supply, leaving less to invest in U.S. stocks.
Europe, Japan, Southeast Asia rely heavily on imports of oil and food; rising energy and raw material costs double factory electricity, shipping, and raw material expenses.
The profits are spent on energy and staples, and the dollar water they had planned to pour into the U.S. orchard is drained by daily expenses, leaving no spare funds to buy U.S. seedlings.
It’s like farmers who had a good harvest and extra savings, but this year, they spend all on fertilizer and have nothing left.
If: a global water shortage causes a “dollar drought,” two diverging paths emerge:
Path 1: Countries are forced to sell off U.S. Treasuries and stocks to get cash, causing the orchard to be passively drained of water.
Domestic funds are insufficient; companies and governments sell U.S. stocks and bonds to buy oil and food, reversing the inflow of water into the orchard, lowering tree values and causing widespread depreciation.
Path 2: Inflation surges, forcing the Fed to cut off water by raising interest rates.
If AI trees produce fewer fruits (disappointing earnings), their prices will plummet, leading to a large-scale decline in the orchard.
If no one worldwide buys AI products, the consequences: the fertility of the orchard is exhausted.

1. Factories and companies stop renewing or purchasing chips and fertilizers—Nvidia and Microsoft can’t sell, and the land loses nutrients, causing AI giant trees to stop bearing new fruits (profits plummet);

2. Tech giants run out of money to expand, cut back on equipment and investments, and the trees stop fertilizing and gradually decline;

3. Buyers see declining yields and less valuable fruits, panic-selling seedlings (selling stocks), causing the entire orchard (the stock market) to plummet sharply, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 falling 15-20% according to Goldman Sachs estimates;

4. Only the old trees like oil and utilities can barely produce fruit, but their size can’t support the overall market, and the bull market ends immediately.