1. Why is it very difficult for BTC to go to zero (the four major hard supports)

1. Absolute scarcity of total supply (fixed at 21 million)
Fiat currencies can be printed infinitely, BTC has a maximum of 21 million, becoming scarcer the more it is mined.

2. Decentralized + extremely strong global computing power, cannot be shut down
No boss, no servers, tens of thousands of nodes worldwide, massive computing power distributed across countries, cannot be killed by a single country or institution.

3. Institutional + whale long-term holdings, extremely solid foundation
◦ BlackRock, MicroStrategy, publicly listed companies, ETFs hold millions of coins
◦ Long-term holders (HODL) account for an increasing proportion, unlikely to sell during big drops, making collective collapse difficult.

4. 17-year history: multiple crashes of 80%–90%, but never zeroed out
2010 worth a few cents, 2011 crash, 2014–2015 bear market, 2018–2019 bear market, 2022 bear market…
Each time it was said to “go to zero,” but each time it survived and reached new highs.

2. Under what conditions will it “truly go to zero” (must meet all conditions)

For BTC to become zero, it’s not just a 90% drop, but a complete collapse of consensus, network shutdown, no demand, no maintenance. All must be triggered simultaneously:

1. Complete technical failure (almost impossible)
◦ Quantum computers suddenly mature, instantly crack private keys, all assets stolen
◦ Fatal bugs in underlying code that cannot be fixed, double spending rampant, trust collapses
◦ The entire network’s hash power is controlled by 51% for a long time, becoming completely untrustworthy

2. Global unified, comprehensive ban (almost impossible)
◦ All major economies like China, US, EU, Japan simultaneously ban trading, mining, custody, payments
◦ Strict enforcement worldwide, no gray areas, liquidity fully dried up

3. Market consensus spirals into total death
◦ Institutions + whales collectively liquidate, no buyers, price → 0, hash power → 0, network halts
◦ Everyone worldwide agrees: BTC is useless, valueless, no one maintains or trades it

4. Catastrophic civilization-level disaster
◦ Global internet paralysis, power grid collapse, societal regression, all digital assets go to zero

In short: it’s not BTC going to zero, but human digital civilization going to zero first.

3. A more realistic outcome: not zero, but “long-term semi-dead”
Most likely path:
• Won’t become 0, but could drop 90%+, stay in long sideways, with huge volatility
• Become a “niche digital gold,” with much larger fluctuations than gold, but won’t disappear
• Regulated, taxed, restricted, but not eliminated

4. A one-sentence summary (just remember this)
BTC probability of going to zero <1%; high chance of dropping 90%; over 90% chance of long-term survival.

5. Practical advice for you
• Don’t bet on “going to zero” by shorting, very low success rate, huge risk of liquidation
• Don’t go all-in, huge volatility, many black swans
• Treat BTC as a high-volatility digital gold: allocate a small amount (5%–10%), don’t gamble on it