5.28 News Summary: Fed Officials Hawkish, SpaceX Valuation Controversy Rises

First, the conclusion: each point is adding to the logic of not going long in June. None are positive.

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1. Federal Reserve: Hawkish Voices Rise, No Hope for Rate Cuts

Three officials speak simultaneously, with a consistent stance: no rate cuts, possibly even rate hikes.

· Kashkari: It is "premature" to assert that a rate hike is needed now, which sounds like "rate hikes are not ruled out."
· Bowman: The impact of the war on inflation is "temporarily negligible," meaning short-term price fluctuations won't change the Fed's tightening stance.
· Schmidt: The most direct one, "may need to consider how to make monetary policy more restrictive," and emphasizes "must clearly communicate the determination to curb inflation."

The probability of unchanged rates in June has risen to 97.3%. This is not expectation, but a certainty. More importantly, the market has begun pricing in the possibility of "rate hikes within the year."

Conclusion: The faucet is still being tightened.

2. SpaceX: Valuation Controversy Does Not Change the Blood-Draw Nature

Two seemingly contradictory pieces of news:

· Reports say SpaceX's IPO target valuation has been lowered to $1.8 trillion (original rumors were higher).
· Musk himself denies the reduction.

But regardless of whether the valuation is $1.8 trillion or $2 trillion, the fact remains that $75 billion is being raised. The Danish pension fund has already blacklisted SpaceX, citing "concerns over governance and seriously overvalued."

Institutional attitude is clear: at this price, I won't buy. But the IPO still proceeds—who will buy? Retail investors. Where does retail money come from? From the pools buying tech stocks and Bitcoin.

Conclusion: Raising $75 billion, who will buy? Retail investors. Where does retail money come from? From the crypto space.

3. Iran: Dawn of Negotiations, War Premium Fades

Trump said he will "make a final decision on Iran," interpreted by US media as hinting at "approving the deal." Iran agreed to export enriched uranium (transiting through Kazakhstan), on the condition that the US and Iran reach an agreement.

Key message: War negotiations may be underway, oil prices may fall.

Conclusion: Oil prices fall → inflation pressure eases → rate hike expectations weaken → positive. But this "positive" is macro-level; short-term liquidity withdrawal (SpaceX) is a more direct negative.

Summary:
· Fed hawkish → no rate cuts, possibly hikes → negative
· SpaceX blood draw → $75 billion liquidity drained → negative
· Iran negotiations → short-term sentiment disturbance, no change in liquidity fundamentals → neutral to slightly positive, but not the main theme
· Bitcoin daily structure: bear market structure unchanged, treat rebounds cautiously

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