#Polymarket每日热点 First, let's state the opinion: I predict that reaching a nuclear agreement by the end of May is impossible! At most, it will be a temporary, provisional compromise! The analysis is as follows:

The US and Iran negotiations are once again playing hard to get with each other!
Recently, a major news from the Middle East has emerged: the US and Iran might really be about to shake hands and make peace; oil prices have dropped in response, and the international community has expressed various stances. So, what exactly did the US and Iran discuss this time? Can they reach an agreement?
1. Background of the negotiations: Both sides are tired after such a long fight.
The trigger for this conflict is complex, but the core issues are twofold.
First, Iran’s nuclear program makes the US uneasy.
Second, Iran is directly causing trouble in the Strait of Hormuz to counter sanctions—laying mines, detaining oil tankers—causing global oil prices to soar.
It’s important to note that the Strait of Hormuz is the “throat” of global oil transportation, with nearly 20 million barrels of crude oil passing through daily, accounting for one-third of global maritime oil shipments. So, if the strait is blocked, the whole world panics. After mediation by Oman, Pakistan, and others, in May 2026, the US and Iran finally sat down at the negotiation table. Trump hinted on social media that “an agreement is basically reached,” but Iran immediately poured cold water—saying Trump’s statement was “incomplete and inaccurate.” Both sides have their own version, but at least they are willing to talk, which is progress.

2. What each side says: one plays the “bad cop,” the other the “good cop”!
First, look at the US side. Trump and Secretary of State Pompeo are both optimistic but cautious. Trump said the agreement would be “better than the Iran nuclear deal during Obama’s era,” while Pompeo, during a visit to India, revealed that “good news may come in the next few hours.” But Pompeo also kept a back-up plan, saying that if a good deal isn’t reached, they will handle Iran “by other means.” In other words, the stick is still raised. Trump also said that the US will either reach a meaningful agreement with Iran or nothing at all. He emphasized that there will be no deal that allows Iran to acquire nuclear weapons.
On Iran’s side, the attitude is clearly more cautious. Official media Tasnim News Agency directly denied any agreement to surrender enriched uranium, saying nuclear issues are not even part of the preliminary deal. The president is even more firm, stating that “Iran will not yield to external pressure and excessive demands.” He added that—since the enemy has now shifted to economic warfare—the core of negotiations is to protect the interests of the Iranian people. A key detail is that any final agreement must be approved by Iran’s Supreme Leader, who appears to be quite tough in his new role. So, don’t just listen to Trump’s bluster; the final decision is still early.

3. Content of the agreement: three confirmed points, one disputed.
According to information from various parties, this “memorandum of understanding” roughly includes the following parts.
Three confirmed points: reopening the Strait of Hormuz. US officials say that during the 60-day ceasefire period, passage will be free, and Iran will clear the mines it laid.
Although Iran emphasizes that the strait remains under its jurisdiction, it agrees to restore navigation, which is a step back for both sides.
US sanctions will be eased. The US will lift maritime blockade on Iranian ports, exempt some oil sanctions, and also agree to release some frozen Iranian assets.
Iran demands “money first, then talks,” and the two sides are still arguing over this sequence.
A comprehensive ceasefire. Not only US and Iran ceasefire, but Israel also wants to end its war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel is very unhappy about this; Netanyahu has already expressed concerns to Trump and continues airstrikes in southern Lebanon.
The biggest controversy is what to do with highly enriched uranium. US officials have hinted that Iran “principally agrees to give up high-enriched uranium,” but the specifics are still to be negotiated.
However, Iranian media immediately refuted this: it’s not true! Nuclear issues will be discussed in the final agreement. Pompeo also admitted that nuclear negotiations are “highly technical and cannot be completed on a napkin within 72 hours.” Ultimately, the US wants to quickly resolve the most troublesome nuclear issue, while Iran wants to push back the most difficult part. If this contradiction isn’t resolved, the agreement could collapse at any time.

4. International reactions: some applaud, some throw tantrums!
Most countries welcome this development. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated clearly on May 25: “The door to dialogue should not be closed again; the Strait of Hormuz should be reopened as soon as possible to maintain global supply chain stability.”
Pakistan, as a mediator, plans to hold the next round of talks in Islamabad, and the agreement might even be called the “Islamabad Declaration.” Turkey and the UK also expressed support. The only “troublemaker” is Israel. Netanyahu is very dissatisfied with the clauses about Lebanon’s ceasefire and delaying nuclear negotiations. During the negotiations, the Israeli military continued attacks in southern Lebanon. Israeli media revealed that Netanyahu held a late-night meeting with the security cabinet, worried that the US might sacrifice Israel’s interests for a deal with Iran. Interestingly, the market’s reaction is much more honest than politicians; once the news broke, Brent crude oil dropped to $99 per barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate crude fell nearly 5%, to around $92. This indicates that investors truly believe the Strait will reopen, and the “war premium” in oil prices is fading.

5. Future outlook: optimism mixed with risks.
In the short term, it’s quite possible to reach a “preliminary framework” for a 60-day ceasefire. Trump needs diplomatic achievements to boost his re-election prospects, and Iran also needs a breather to restore oil exports. Both sides have their needs, so signing a temporary agreement is not difficult.
But in the long run, three major obstacles are hard to overcome.
Nuclear red lines.
Will Iran’s Supreme Leader agree to give up enriched uranium? The precedent of the US unilaterally tearing up the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 still looms; why would Iran trust the US again?
Israel’s interference. Netanyahu might lobby the US Congress or conduct targeted strikes, directly overturning the negotiations.
Implementation difficulties. Who will supervise the “free reopening” of the strait? How long will Iran take to clear mines? If friction occurs again, the ceasefire could instantly turn into conflict.
Additionally, don’t forget historical lessons. The 2015 Iran nuclear deal was well-signed, but Trump tore it up when he came to power; Iran suffered losses, and this time, they will be cautious.

6. Conclusion
Overall, the US and Iran negotiations have indeed taken a good first step. The Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen, oil prices have dropped, and the international community is pushing for progress. But it’s still too early to say the conflicts are fully resolved. As China’s Foreign Ministry said: “Since the door to dialogue has been opened, it should not be closed again.”
How long this door remains open and how wide depends on the wisdom of the two “main protagonists,” the US and Iran.
Can the Middle East truly achieve peace? Let’s wait and see.