#USStrikesIran

U.S.-Iran Agreement Getting Closer, Oil Prices Under Pressure

Focus on Crude Oil:

The U.S. Secretary of State is optimistic that an agreement with Iran is still possible within a few more days despite new U.S. attacks.
Israel threatens to launch a new wave of attacks across Lebanon following Netanyahu's announcement.
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Tuesday, May 26, 2026 - Oil prices this morning are observed to move bearish, weighed down by sentiment from signals of positive progress in the U.S.-Iran peace talks. However, further Israeli attacks on Lebanon and Russian strikes on Ukraine could potentially push prices higher again.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Monday that an agreement with Iran is still possible within a few days, despite new U.S. attacks targeting Iranian ships and missile launch sites on the same day, claiming self-defense. Additionally, Iran’s chief negotiator and foreign minister are scheduled to meet with Qatar’s prime minister on Tuesday in Doha to discuss the potential deal with the U.S., according to a government official on Monday.

Meanwhile, the Israeli military said it has launched a wave of attacks across Lebanon following Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s announcement that his country will intensify its attacks on Hezbollah. The planned escalation of Israeli strikes could hinder progress in the U.S.-Iran peace negotiations.

Supporting prices further, Russia threatened to launch a new systematic wave of attacks against Kyiv, targeting decision-making centers, command posts, and drone manufacturing facilities in the city, the Russian foreign ministry said on Monday. Moscow also urged foreign nationals and diplomats to leave Kyiv as soon as possible and warned residents to stay away from administrative and military buildings.

Additional support comes from the Syzran oil refinery on the Volga River in Russia, which halted operations after Ukrainian drone attacks on May 21 damaged the main processing unit, according to two industry sources on Monday. The damaged unit accounted for over 70% of the refinery’s capacity, which has an installed capacity of 8.5 million metric tons per year, or 170,000 bpd.

From a technical perspective, oil prices may encounter the nearest resistance level at $94 per barrel. However, if negative catalysts occur, prices could fall to the nearest support level at $89 per barrel.