May 26 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis

News:
Discussions around the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve continue, with clarity on CLARITY Act regulation being positive, and companies like SpaceX disclosing holdings (about 18k BTC). These factors boost institutional and corporate confidence in adoption over the long term.

The macro environment is influenced by Federal Reserve policies (rising yields, strengthening dollar), leading to decreased market risk appetite. Bitcoin has retreated from the recent above $80k, accompanied by broader risk aversion sentiment.

Yesterday, there were no major sudden negative shocks overall, but macro uncertainties suppressed short-term sentiment.

Capital:
ETF capital flows: remain weak. Multiple days/weeks of net outflows in May (e.g., about $1.26 billion outflow in one week), with six consecutive days of outflows totaling over $1.5 billion. This is a significant recent pressure point, mainly due to high-yield environment, with institutions taking profits or shifting to bonds. Although net inflow in 2026 remains positive, the growth rate has slowed.

On-chain data: apparent demand over the past 30 days reached -147k BTC, the lowest point in 2026 (similar to late 2025 prices of $60-66k), indicating weak spot buying and increased pressure from long-dormant coins entering circulation. Miner accumulation mode (MPI negative), but short-term selling pressure exists.

Derivatives: perpetual contract funding rates are generally low or slightly positive (around 0.001-0.01%), with no signs of extreme long crowding, and leverage risk is manageable.

Technical:
Looking back, yesterday’s guidance was that as long as the price doesn’t break 77,700, risk should be watched. The current market has moved perfectly according to that expectation, reaching the target area and then pulling back.

Today’s outlook remains the same: on the daily chart, risk persists, and attention should be paid to whether the secondary test and the slow line break below zero. The only bullish scenario is if the four-hour chart forms support at 76,400 and then develops a four-hour head and shoulders bottom; if this fails and breaks below 76,400, a secondary test around 74,000 is expected.

In summary, the intraday range will likely oscillate around 76,400-77,700, with a continued decline if it breaks below 76,400.