BTC returns to 78k! This time it's not a bull market, but a bear market caught off guard by Middle East news

Last night, the biggest victim in the crypto world was not retail investors.
It was the bears.
After news of a draft Iran-U.S. agreement, BTC suddenly surged, directly knocking many short sellers into "late-night philosophers."
Because many people originally bet:
The Middle East would continue to escalate;
Risk assets would keep falling;
BTC would continue to retrace.
But the plot suddenly reversed.
The most surreal part of the market now is:
Previously, BTC moved with U.S. stocks;
Now, BTC also has to move with the Middle East.
You never know whether the next candlestick will be a technical breakout or international news.
And this time, BTC managing to reclaim $78k actually boils down to one core reason:
Risk appetite has returned.
Funds are willing to gamble on high-volatility assets again.
But the reality is also quite clear:
Why can't BTC break higher?
Because there are still a bunch of "stuck old hands" waiting to get out.
Around $78k, the market is filled with:
Previous high-level trapped positions;
Short-term profit-taking orders;
High-leverage traders.
As soon as the price moves up, someone immediately runs.
So now, the market has formed a particularly funny situation:
Bulls want to push higher;
Bears want to smash;
Market makers want to harvest both sides at once.
My view on today’s market is neutral to slightly bullish.
As long as BTC doesn’t fall below $77k in the short term, market sentiment won’t turn completely bearish.
But breaking through $80k violently isn’t that easy either.
Because the real determinant of direction is still dollar liquidity.
Currently, the global markets are essentially betting on two things:
Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates?
Will the Middle East escalate again?
As long as one of these worsens, BTC could suddenly plunge again.
So the most likely scenario today is:
A rally, followed by volatility, and repeated shakeouts.
Simply put:
The main players aren’t trying to push up immediately,
They want to see how many people are still willing to chase the high.
In one sentence:
Last night’s rally doesn’t mean the bull market is back,
But at least it shows—bears are starting to sweat.
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