Polymarket "The Strait of Hormuz will return to normal before May 31" probability is only 37%, down 9% in 24 hours

ME News message. On April 13 (UTC+8), according to monitoring by Odaily Seer’s prophet channel, the probability of Polymarket’s “Strait of Hormuz will return to normal before May 31” is only 37%, down 9% over the past 24 hours.

The event contract rules are: if the International Monetary Fund Portwatch (IMF Portwatch) publishes, on any date between market creation and May 31, 2026, that the Strait of Hormuz has at least 60 7-day moving average transiting ship arrivals (“ships arriving”), then the market will be judged as “Yes”; otherwise, the market will be judged as “No.” The daily number of transiting ship arrivals includes container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and oil tankers. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

The U.S. military said it will begin implementing a blockade in the Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz and in the Gulf of Oman, and any ships that enter or leave the blockade area without authorization may be intercepted, diverted, and seized.

In addition, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said he supports Trump’s decision to impose a maritime blockade on Iran, and added that his government is fully coordinated with Washington on this matter. According to a video statement released by the Prime Minister’s Office, Netanyahu said at the cabinet meeting: “Iran has violated the rules, and President Trump has decided to implement a maritime blockade.” “Of course, we support this firm position, and we are maintaining ongoing coordination with the United States.”

Odaily Seer’s prophet channel continues to monitor prediction markets and sees changes before pricing. (Source: ODAILY)