Short-term (end of April): The market consensus range is approximately 76,000-83,000 USDT, mainly depends on whether the 76,000 support can hold, with 80,000 being an important psychological barrier. The extension of the ceasefire and the results of the Warsh hearing remain the biggest uncertainties.

Mid to long-term: Institutional target price disagreements are quite large—Citigroup sees 189,000, JPMorgan Chase sees 266,000, but both are based on the premise of recovering 84,000 at the 200 EMA. Institutional acceleration and tightening supply are structural positives, but macro hawkishness and geopolitical risks could interrupt the upward momentum at any time.

Overall judgment: The news is relatively positive, but there is a short-term technical overbought correction risk, with 76,000 being the dividing line between bulls and bears. Continuous inflow of institutional funds provides bottom support, but caution is advised against chasing highs.

Four-hour MACD bearish divergence combined with daily overbought conditions presents a conflicting signal worth deeper analysis—should I further analyze the capital flow and whale holdings changes to see who is really leading between institutional buying and retail selling?