Here's how it goes, every time someone says AI will revolutionize everything within months, I immediately think of all the apocalyptic predictions that have already proven wrong before. In 2007, people panicked about peak oil, in 2008 the dollar system was "almost collapsing," in 2014 AMD and NVIDIA were already "done." Then ChatGPT appeared, and someone shouted Google was dead. But the reality? Major institutions with deep inertia are always far more resilient than we imagine.

Take the example of real estate agents. People have been shouting "they will become extinct" for 20 years! Just have Zillow, Redfin, or Opendoor, right? But do you know what happened? They’re still alive and kicking. I bought a house a few months ago and was forced to hire an agent because of regulations. My agent earned $50,000 from that transaction, even though all they did was fill out forms and coordinate—at most 10 hours of work, which I could do myself. But the system still maintains them. This is concrete proof that singularity is something that will come slower than expected because of regulatory barriers and market inertia.

Now, about software. Everyone says AI will make SaaS like Salesforce and Monday redundant, margins will go to zero, programmers will all be laid off. But they forget one fundamental thing: software today is truly terrible. I’ve spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on Salesforce and Monday myself, and believe me, their products are full of bugs. Some tools are so bad I wouldn’t pay to use them—(Citibank internet banking still errors after 3 years). Most web applications fail on mobile, and none have all the features you want.

Here’s a paradox people overlook: although AI allows competitors to imitate these products, what’s more important is that AI enables them to create better products. But on the other hand, demand for high-quality software is almost unlimited. The final refinement of software products always requires the most effort. If you think seriously, almost every software still has 100 times room for improvement before reaching saturation. I’ve been a programmer since 2020, and my productivity is equivalent to hundreds of people in 1970—crazy leverage. But there’s still plenty of room for optimization. Singularity is a concept people often misunderstand: they think it will be instant, but the physical world is full of friction.

What’s often forgotten is Jevons Paradox: increased efficiency often leads to a total demand explosion. This isn’t a guarantee of forever jobs, but the capacity of the software industry to absorb labor far exceeds our expectations. The saturation process will be very slow.

Now, the real solution lies in reindustrialization. America has almost completely lost its core manufacturing capabilities: batteries, motors, semiconductors, the entire electricity supply chain. China produces 90% of the world's synthetic ammonia—if supply is cut, we can’t make fertilizer. This is an unlimited job opportunity in the form of infrastructure that benefits the country and has cross-party support.

My prediction: when AI shakes up white-collar workers, the path with the least political barriers is massive reindustrialization funding. Desalination plants, bridge repairs, energy infrastructure—all require long-term labor and ongoing maintenance. A senior product manager from Salesforce who lost $180,000 could find a new job here, and honestly, physical work is far more satisfying than spinning in the abstract digital world.

In the long run, if we truly lose most office jobs to AI, we must be able to maintain a high quality of life. Fortunately, AI will push profit margins toward zero, making consumer goods very cheap. This goal is achieved automatically.

So, the bottom line: transformation will be slower than pessimists predict. I am very optimistic about AI—one day, my job will become obsolete. But it takes time, and that time gives us the opportunity to formulate good strategies. The US government has already proven during the pandemic that they respond swiftly in crises. When needed, large-scale stimulus measures are implemented immediately. The key is to maintain material prosperity—general welfare that legitimizes the state and sustains the social contract. If we stay alert to this slow but steady technological change, we will be safe.