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While most people in the crypto market are thinking about Bitcoin's long-term future, experienced investors are now warning about a closer and more dangerous problem: quantum computers.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, recently issued a warning on this issue. Edwards said that Bitcoin has faced past extreme price drops, stock market closures, and even major scandals like FTX, but these events never shook his long-term vision. However, the topic of quantum computing is different. Edwards states that Bitcoin's current cryptographic infrastructure is not sufficient against the advancing threat of quantum technology. He compares the situation to the use of old military strategies in modern warfare – Bitcoin will not have a chance if it does not adapt.
Ki Young Ju from CryptoQuant explains more specifically the threat that quantum computers could pose to Bitcoin. According to Ju, protecting the network may require difficult decisions. As part of a quantum-resistant upgrade, freezing old Bitcoin addresses could be a solution, but the crypto community is struggling to reach consensus on protocol updates. Implementing such changes will be truly challenging.
However, the industry is divided on this issue. Jameson Lopp, co-founder of Casa, said in December that quantum computers do not pose an immediate threat to Bitcoin. According to Lopp, the technology is still very advanced, and it will be a long time before Bitcoin's cryptography can be broken. Michael Saylor shares a similar view – he notes that most cybersecurity experts believe a credible quantum threat is at least ten years away.
Grayscale's report also emphasizes that the likelihood of quantum computing having a significant impact on crypto markets by 2026 is low. While accepting long-term risks, it remains cautious about short-term threats.
But the real issue, as Edwards also pointed out, is not the severity of the quantum computer threat but the neglect of this issue and the lack of urgency. Until there is a consensus in the Bitcoin community regarding quantum computing, finding a real solution seems difficult.