UBS: China's CRO enters a new upward cycle, with accumulated orders in 2025 driving revenue realization in 2026

Asking AI · What industry new trends are indicated by the pre-order revenue lagging model?

After experiencing two years of market downturn, China’s CRO/CDMO industry is now seeing a fundamental reversal. UBS’s outlook report released in April 2026 shows that in 2025, revenue in the CDMO sector grew strongly: WuXi Biologics increased by 46.7%, WuXi AppTec grew by 16.7%, WuXi KANGDE increased by 15.8%, and Kanglong Chemical grew by 14.8%. The driving factors are the explosive demand for new therapies such as bispecific antibodies, ADCs, and oral GLP-1 small molecules.

The CRO sector exhibits a “pre-order, revenue lag” characteristic: Tigermed’s revenue increased only 3.5%, but new orders surged by 20.66%; focusing on new drug revenue decreased by 17.9%, but new orders skyrocketed by 41%. UBS expects that accumulated orders in 2025 will drive revenue realization in 2026.

Supporting industry factors include: in the first two months of 2026, China’s biopharmaceutical financing increased by 151% year-over-year, compared to 96% globally; upfront payments for licensing have reached 48% of the total for 2025, totaling 37%; by the end of 2025, orders generally increased, such as WuXi AppTec’s 50.3%, and WuXi Biologics and WuXi KANGDE’s orders both increased by approximately 28.8%–28.9%.

The revenue guidance for 2026 is clear: WuXi KANGDE is expected to grow by 12.9%–16.6% (TIDES business at least 36%), WuXi Biologics by 13%–17%, WuXi AppTec, Kanglong Chemical, and Kanglong Biologics all over 35% or 18%, and Tigermed to achieve double-digit growth.