Interesting how the market situation has changed significantly over the past year. JPMorgan's report notes that Bitcoin futures are now in oversold territory, and capital is flowing heavily into gold and silver. I’ve noticed this in my own portfolio — many are shifting to traditional assets.

Looking at the numbers: gold ETFs attracted about $8.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024, silver ETFs — $2.3 billion. This is a 47% and 38% increase respectively. Meanwhile, open interest in Bitcoin futures has fallen by 15%, and trading volumes have decreased by 22%. This isn’t just fluctuation — it’s a systemic reassessment of risks.

Why is this happening? First, rising interest rates make holding volatile assets more expensive. Second, geopolitical tensions are pushing investors toward safe havens. Third, regulatory uncertainty in the crypto sphere creates doubts. Gold showed 12% volatility over 60 days, while Bitcoin — 68%. The difference is enormous.

Institutional players were the first to move, back in August 2024. Hedge funds and asset managers reduced their crypto positions by 23%. Retail investors followed, but more slowly. This indicates that larger players have better information and react faster.

The technical picture supports this trend. Bitcoin is trading below the 20-day moving average by two standard deviations — a classic oversold signal. For a change, it needs to rise above the 200-day moving average. Gold, on the other hand, holds support above $2,100 per ounce. Relative strength favors gold — the highest since 2020.

Interestingly, this is already the third such capital rotation between Bitcoin and gold since 2017. Previous cycles lasted an average of nine months. But current conditions differ — central banks are still focused on controlling inflation, geopolitics remain tense, and the regulatory framework for crypto is still confusing. All this could prolong the period.

I monitor ETF flows and technical levels. If gold funds continue to attract inflows while crypto funds remain unchanged, the trend could extend. But if gold ETFs start experiencing outflows — that will be the first signal of a reversal.