Looking at the data from the FRB interest rate watch, the probability of holding rates steady until April is overwhelmingly high at 86.1%. In other words, the possibility of a rate cut in the near term is limited.

The CME futures market indicates that, as of March, there was a 99.4% chance that interest rates would remain unchanged, so it seems likely that the wait-and-see mode will continue for now. The fact that the probability of a 25 basis point cut by June rises to 37.5% could be a signal that something might change from spring to early summer.

From the perspective of Fed watch, it looks like interest rates will stay put in the short term, but how the market reacts will be the key point. Future data such as inflation trends and employment statistics will likely influence these probabilities.