#美伊谈判陷入僵局 Ceasefire Breaks Down! The Risk of Full-Scale War Between the U.S. and Iran Soars, Will Oil and Gold Prices Surge?

On April 24, 2026, Beijing time, the Middle East situation reached its most dangerous turning point in nearly half a year—the temporary ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, set to expire on April 22, has become effectively defunct. The Strait of Hormuz has fallen into a “dual blockade” deadlock between the U.S. and Iran, with military actions on both sides continuing to escalate, and the risk of all-out war rising sharply. If this “energy artery,” which carries 20% of global oil shipments, is completely cut off, the global energy market will experience intense turbulence, and oil and gold prices may enter a new round of rapid increase, directly impacting the wallets of ordinary people.

1. The ceasefire has completely collapsed! The U.S. and Iran have moved from negotiations to military confrontation

This two-week temporary ceasefire was full of suspicion and bargaining from the start, and its complete rupture has long been foreshadowed.

On April 21, Iran officially announced it would refuse to attend the second round of U.S.-Iran talks scheduled for April 22 in Islamabad, Pakistan. Iran’s Tasnim News Agency explicitly stated: The U.S. is signaling negotiations while intensifying maritime blockades and military sanctions, showing no sincerity for talks, and participating would be a waste of time.

Almost simultaneously, U.S. President Trump announced on social media that the ceasefire would be extended, seemingly making a concession but actually hiding a deadly trap. He emphasized that the extension was at Pakistan’s request, but U.S. forces would continue to maintain the maritime blockade against Iran, keep full combat readiness, and threaten to continue bombing Iran once the extension expires. The White House then canceled Vice President Vance’s trip to Pakistan, further exposing the true purpose of the U.S.: using the ceasefire as leverage to pressure Iran into concessions.

The “peace illusion” of the ceasefire extension lasted only one day. On April 23, the situation spiraled out of control. Trump publicly declared that U.S. forces had full control of the Strait of Hormuz, ordered that no ships could enter or leave without U.S. Navy approval, and authorized the U.S. military to sink Iranian ships laying mines in the strait.

Iran responded with the strongest stance, devising a comprehensive countermeasure plan: if domestic power plants or oil and gas facilities are attacked, they will retaliate equivalently against similar targets within the U.S. and even could reduce Iran’s oil production by 25 million barrels per day, with this state lasting up to a year. On the evening of the 23rd, explosions suddenly occurred in Tehran, and the local air defense system was activated to intercept targets, instantly bringing the situation to a critical point.

2. The Strait of Hormuz: the “lifeline” of global energy, the core of U.S.-Iran confrontation

Behind the tense standoff between the U.S. and Iran, there is only one core issue—the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway is the “throat” of the global energy supply chain and a key determinant of oil prices.

The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf and the Oman Gulf, with its narrowest point only 33 kilometers wide.