Can you catch the "smart money" just by watching large transfers on the blockchain every day?

I now see it as noise, at most a reminder not to get emotional.
As for airdrop interactions, honestly, there are only two rules: don't treat your wallet as a resume submission tool, and don't treat every new project as a lottery.
Avoid authorizations when you can, make small transactions when possible, and before interacting, review the contract/permissions twice.
If I see an unlimited approve or strange upgrade permissions, I just close the page... better to miss out than risk it.
As for the interpretation that "exchanges' hot and cold wallets move and immediately cause a surge," I usually just listen to it as a story.
If I really want to do it, I only engage with what I can afford to lose to zero.
Being able to sleep well is the most important.