XRP is trading around $1.43, up 1.2% over the last 24 hours. At first glance, it looks decent, but if you look at the daily chart — the picture is quite different. This tension between what the news says about ripple and what the technicals show right now is what determines the situation.

From the institutional side, everything looks solid. Seven US spot ETFs on XRP have already accumulated nearly $960 million in assets under management and attracted $1.22 billion in net inflows. Plus, ripple has increased its credit limit to $250 million. In April, a regulator decision was made that removed a lot of risks for platforms based on XRP Ledger. If you believe these signals, institutions are clearly accumulating. News about ripple looks bullish.

But the technicals tell a completely different story. The price stays above the SMA-20 and SMA-50, which is good, but problems start further down. RSI at 58 appears to be a buy signal, but Stoch RSI and CCI show overbought conditions. MACD on the daily chart is pushing downward. Volatility is high, ranging from $2.8 billion to $5.9 billion per day — it could go either way. And most importantly, the SMA-200 sits at $1.92, meaning XRP is 26% below the long-term resistance. Mixed signals, to say the least.

The critical level is $1.55. If the price breaks through it with volume, then a move toward $1.90 can be considered. But currently, XRP is stuck in the $1.35–$1.55 range, and the probability of an upward breakout is estimated below 20%. If it closes below $1.35, the uptrend will break, and a correction will follow. The risk is clear.

With a market capitalization of $88 billion, XRP needs huge amounts of money for a serious move. That’s why many are looking at early projects. For example, Bitcoin Hyper positions itself as a Layer 2 for Bitcoin with integration of the Solana Virtual Machine. The presale has already raised $32 million, and the token is trading at $0.0137. The idea is that $1.3 trillion in Bitcoin was locked out of DeFi due to slow transactions. It could be interesting, but the risks are high — tokens are illiquid until they are listed.

Overall, the situation with ripple is tense. Institutions say “yes,” but the technicals say “maybe.” I’m waiting for confirmation at $1.55.