CICC: Gold investment demand and prices may both have room for upward correction

Ask AI · How will Middle East geopolitical tensions affect the focal point of gold pricing?

【CICC: Both gold investment demand and prices may have room for upward correction】Caixin/Caijing Finance, April 4 — CICC’s research report believes that the US-Iran conflict has driven a sharp jump in oil prices, with “inflation” risks taking the lead first. Market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut path have changed, creating selling pressure for gold ETFs that were increased in the previous year. Meanwhile, the liquidity shock has also helped spur short-term pullbacks through the futures and options markets. Currently, the Middle East geopolitical situation may be moving into a key window period. With oil prices facing a choice between moving up or down, the gold market’s pricing focus may shift to assessing how supply shocks affect “stagnation.” The rate-hike expectations that have already been priced in may need to be adjusted. Looking ahead, CICC believes that whether it is an oil-price pullback after geopolitical de-escalation, a return of monetary policy to a more easing direction, or heavier recession pressures triggered by worsening supply shocks and the resulting rise in gold’s safe-haven value, both gold investment demand and prices may have room for upward correction.