Recently, I keep seeing people take large on-chain transfers as "smart money," and they start speculating when exchanges' hot and cold wallets move.

Now I’m used to first breaking down these so-called "coincidental transfers": where the money comes from (old addresses or new shells), how many hops it takes (are there common collection/distribution paths), and where it ends up (exchanges, cross-chain bridges, or back to a bunch of small addresses).
Most of the time, it’s just moving, risk control changing wallets, or market-making collection—nothing too mysterious.
If I can explain the path, I’ll include it in my risk framework; otherwise, I treat it as noise.
When the line hits, I’ll still cut losses and wait for the next opportunity.
Long-term, it’s not about talent but about this somewhat tedious habit.