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Analyst: BTC recovery is fragile, Middle East situation may dominate market trends in 2026
ME News report, April 13 (UTC+8): Nic Puckrin, the founder of Coin Bureau and a crypto market analyst, said that Bitcoin’s recovery currently appears fragile, and that the geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures brought by the Middle East war will affect the market performance in the second quarter of 2026. Puckrin expects that the earliest rate cuts may not happen until the third or fourth quarter. He believes that in order for Bitcoin to reach $90,000, three conditions must be met: geopolitical tensions easing, oil prices falling back to about $80, and economic data staying weak.
At present, Bitcoin is priced at approximately $71,276, faces resistance at $74,000, and is trading below the 200-day moving average. Previously, Bitcoin had broken above $73,000, but fell back after the collapse of U.S.-Iran negotiations and Trump’s announcement of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, there are differing views within the Federal Reserve FOMC regarding rate cuts in 2026. CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged at both upcoming meetings exceeds 98%. (Source: MLion)