During the US-Iran conflict, Polymarket trading volume surged, with related transactions exceeding $100 million over four days.

BlockBeats News, April 23 — According to Fortune, amid heightened uncertainty caused by Donald Trump’s social media statements and policies regarding the Iran war, trading volume on prediction market platforms surged. Data from Dune shows that from April 5 (Sunday) to April 8 (Wednesday), the day after Trump announced a ceasefire, there were 413 million trades related to the Iran war on Polymarket, totaling over $100 million.

The report notes that on April 8, a poll on Polymarket about “Whether Trump is likely to send troops to Iran” generated nearly 100k trades, making it the largest trading day of the year up to that point. Prior to that, after Trump posted on Truth Social on April 5 demanding Iran “open the damn strait,” trading volume on Polymarket regarding an imminent invasion spiked significantly; on April 7, after his post implying “civilization will end tonight,” the topic of “whether a ceasefire will occur” became the highest-volume event. Dune’s related report described Trump as an “unpredictable machine” and marveled at how his “Twitter governance” style could boost trading volume.

Prediction markets have faced bipartisan criticism for allegedly facilitating insider trading, but Trump appears to strongly support them. He has adopted a lax regulatory approach and helped expand the industry. Reports indicate that Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., holds shares in Polymarket and serves as an advisor to Kalshi. Polymarket is currently valued at $9.6 billion, nearly ten times the valuation at the latest funding round of Trump’s venture capital fund eight months ago. The Trump family’s Trump Organization is also developing its own prediction market platform, Truth Predict.

Trump Jr.'s spokesperson, Andrew Surabian, responded to related questions by saying, “Don, as an investor or advisor involved in any company, does not have contact with the federal government and has no influence or involvement in government policies regarding prediction markets.” Polymarket did not respond to media requests for comment. Additionally, the probability of “Trump being impeached before the end of his term” on Polymarket has risen from 13% at the beginning of the year to 66% this Tuesday.