A little more than a week ago, the S&P 500 fully recovered from the losses caused by the attacks between EE.UU. and Irán. Now it’s brushing up against all-time highs. Everything’s fine, right? Not exactly.

Here’s where it gets interesting: the stock market is telling a completely different story than bonds and oil. And when two of the world’s most important markets are at odds, that’s a signal you can’t ignore.

Let’s look at the numbers. On 27 de febrero, before all of this, the 10-year bond yield was at 3.95%. Yesterday it closed at 4.25%. That’s a 30-basis-point increase. WTI crude moved from $67.02 to approximately $92. A 37% jump in six weeks. And the 2-year bond yield rose by nearly 40 basis points.

So what does this mean? That the bond market is quietly pricing in persistent inflation. Those higher yields don’t reflect optimism about growth; they reflect genuine concern that high oil prices will transmit throughout the entire system. The Fed’s room to maneuver could be much more limited than the stock market is assuming.

Oil is also not supporting this rally. If there were real confidence in a near-term resolution of the conflict, crude would already be falling toward $70. But it’s still up. That suggests the energy market isn’t pricing in the same “imminent resolution” as the stock market.

So what does the S&P 500 need to believe in order to be where it is? That the Fed will ignore hotter inflation data and keep cutting rates. That higher transportation and raw material costs won’t erode margins. That Medio Oriente will be resolved in the coming months. Those are fairly aggressive assumptions, and bonds and oil simply don’t back them up.

Look, this rally over the last 10 days was mainly momentum, not fundamentals. Traders shorting during an uptrend perpetuate the momentum. That can keep the market artificially elevated for a while, but it doesn’t change the underlying reality.

Bonds are still signaling real risks. Oil remains expensive. Inflation is still a latent pressure. This divergence will eventually correct itself in one of two ways: either the stock market is right and bonds/oil rise with it, or the stock market falls to where bonds are now.

Right now, the stock market is at the most optimistic end of the range. Bonds and oil are closer to the middle. And for now, I don’t see bonds and oil moving toward stocks. It looks like it will be the other way around.

Inflation data comes out on 12 de mayo. If IPC comes in above 3.5%, the rate-cut narrative falls apart. We’re at all-time highs, betting that everything goes perfectly: war resolved without surprises, inflation under control, the Fed cutting rates, and stable earnings. Four conditions that must all be met simultaneously. Any deviation means a fast correction.

I’d rather have patience. Let others chase a rise that two key markets are “quietly denying.” Bonds and oil are closer to the truth than the stock market is right now. That’s what I see.