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"1011 Insider Whale" Agent: Market bets on "peace deal," but the Strait of Hormuz risk remains unresolved
Odaily Planet Daily reported that “1011 Insider Whale” agent Garrett Jin stated that the current market is pricing in “peaceful expectations,” driving risk assets higher, but diverging from supply and demand conditions in the energy market.
He pointed out that while the S&P 500 index hit a new all-time high, Brent crude oil prices rebounded to about $103. Previously, hedge funds had heavily shorted oil, with Goldman Sachs data showing the ratio of shorts to longs reaching as high as 7.6:1. The market rally currently relies on conditions such as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, falling oil prices, declining inflation, and Federal Reserve rate cuts, none of which have been realized. The gap between forward earnings expectations and actual earnings has risen to its highest level since 2021.