Overall, the downward trend hasn’t changed. Please don’t start screaming just because of a brief pullback that “the bull is here”!!! Not even the 120-day moving average has managed to stabilize and hold, let alone break upward—so please don’t chase longs. I’ve already reminded everyone many times before.

Also, right now, liquidity across the entire financial market is still being continuously tightened, and there’s no reversal. There hasn’t been any real “breakout” yet, and there’s no major “bad news” or crisis. The role that current geopolitical conflicts are playing right now is quite confusing—especially over the short to medium term. You can see it: when geopolitical tensions ease, and with the strong rebound in US stocks, a bunch of people start popping champagne, and even some brainless folks say “the bull is here,” going on and on about “if you don’t get in now, you’ll miss the train!”

Let me emphasize again: oil prices are still trading in high-level ranges, moving back and forth and shaking people out. Also, spot and futures have already seriously decoupled—this is worth our attention!! Liquidity is still continuously shrinking. For the current crypto sector, it’s the most sensitive to liquidity, and it’s also the first place where that shows clearly. Bitcoin has fallen from 120,000 all the way down to a range starting with 5, and after a long round of back-and-forth washouts, it has rebounded back to the 7s. In crypto, this is the fastest sector to clear risk; there’s a 70% chance there will still be one final drop. Then it will grind out the bottom a bit more below. Let’s not be in a hurry—wait a little longer, and then we can position for long-term spot holdings.

Follow Old Wang’s lead. $BTC $ETH