Do you feel like the altcoin market has really stopped rising lately? From the analysis of major market makers, what becomes clear is that this isn’t just temporary stagnation—the very structure of the cryptocurrency market itself is changing significantly.

Until now, the cryptocurrency market had a certain kind of cyclical pattern. Capital flowed into Bitcoin, then spread to Ethereum, and from there into altcoins. This flow produced a narrative-driven market, but in 2025, this traditional cycle has clearly weakened. In fact, when you look at OTC trading data, the period during which altcoins manage to keep rising averages only 20 days. It shrank to one-third of the 60 days seen the previous year.

Why is this happening? The main reason is the evolution of ETFs and digital asset treasury companies. These investment products have, in a sense, evolved into a “closed garden,” concentrating capital into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and some large-cap altcoins. As a result, liquidity gets trapped in specific tickers, making it harder for capital to move into a wider range of altcoins.

Not only that—personal investors’ interest shifting toward stock-market themes like AI and quantum computing is also accelerating capital concentration in the crypto market. That’s why the overall cryptocurrency market has been stuck in a phase where it doesn’t rise.

What’s interesting is the scenario looking ahead to 2026. It’s been pointed out that for the altcoin market to expand again, one of three things needs to happen: ETFs or treasury companies expanding the scope of what they invest in, rising Bitcoin or Ethereum spilling over into the altcoin market as a whole, or individual investors’ interest returning from stocks to cryptocurrencies.

Through ETF applications for Solana and XRP, there are signs that the scope of investment targets is expanding. However, it remains unclear how much capital will actually flow into the altcoin market. The shift of interest from stock-market themes back to the cryptocurrency market is said to be the least likely scenario.

We’re entering an era where predictions based on the traditional four-year cycle no longer work. From here on, it will be necessary to judge the flow of liquidity and changes in investor sentiment. I think understanding that it’s not that cryptocurrencies aren’t rising, but rather that the market mechanism itself is changing, is essential for making investment decisions going forward.