The smoke has cleared from the "Takeout War"; which new tea beverage company has made money?

Ask AI · How can franchise models help new tea beverage companies achieve profit growth?

After experiencing a “full stomach” of milk tea in 2025, the financial reports of six listed new tea beverage companies are released.

Over the past year, milk tea has shifted from a popular item where consumers line up to check in, to marketing ammunition for “takeout battles” and “AI red envelope wars” on major platforms. While consumer frequency has increased, the industry’s growth logic has also been reshaped.

In 2025, five of the six listed new tea beverage companies achieved profitability. Among them, Mixue Group led significantly with revenue of 33.56 billion yuan and net profit attributable to parent of 5.89B yuan; Guming ranked second with revenue of 12.91B yuan and net profit attributable to parent of 3.11B yuan, growing 46.9% and 110.3% year-on-year respectively; Tea Baidao and Shanghai Auntie also saw net profit attributable to parent increase by over 70% and 52%.

Consumers frequently “refill cups,” supporting milk tea companies’ booming profits, but signs of “involution” are also evident in the financial data: as the number of tea shops in first-tier and above cities approaches saturation, in 2025, the store proportions in these cities for five companies all saw slight declines. According to Jiuzhen Data, although the total number of milk tea stores still grew overall, the year-on-year growth rate slowed from 15% in 2024 to below 10% in 2025, indicating a slowdown in expansion pace.

Looking at brands, the growth rate of Bawang Chaji stores slowed from 83% in 2024 to 16%, and Naixue’s Tea even experienced a contraction in store numbers. The differences in store growth reflect strategic divergence among leading brands. Guming, Mixue Group, and Shanghai Auntie continue to expand stores through penetration into lower-tier markets and supply chain advantages, with Mixue adding over 13k stores in 2025, a 33% increase year-on-year.

“Cost-performance ratio” boosts Mixue’s performance, high-end brands face difficulties

Over the past year, affordable pricing, franchise expansion, and sinking markets have delivered results for leading companies.

In 2025, Mixue Group and Guming led the industry in performance growth. Tea Baidao and Shanghai Auntie achieved both revenue and profit growth. Naixue’s Tea, although still unprofitable, narrowed its losses by nearly 74% compared to the previous year.

On the evening of March 31, Zhang Junjie, founder of Bawang Chaji, admitted at the earnings conference that they underestimated the extent of market “involution” in 2025 and also underestimated the impact of “takeout wars” on offline tea consumption on instant retail platforms. In August last year, senior executives of Bawang Chaji stated during the Q2 earnings call that they would not participate in price wars to avoid damaging franchisee profits and the high-end brand image.

High-end positioning and direct-operated models of tea brands are showing pressure to respond to the “milk tea price war.” Financial reports show that in 2025, Naixue’s Tea’s operating revenue declined nearly 12% from the previous year. Bawang Chaji’s revenue grew slightly by 4% year-on-year to 13k yuan, but its net profit attributable to parent dropped about 52% to 12.91B yuan.

The performance divergence among the six tea companies essentially results from choosing different operational paths.

In terms of operating costs, Bawang Chaji and Naixue’s Tea have advantages. In 2025, Bawang Chaji’s operating costs were 1.14B yuan, accounting for 54% of revenue; Naixue’s operating costs were 6.99B yuan, accounting for 56%, better than the 67% to 69% cost levels of the other four brands.

What truly widens the gap is expenses, especially management expenses.

In 2025, Bawang Chaji’s management expense ratio reached 19%, an increase of over 10 percentage points from the previous year, mainly due to organizational restructuring and equity incentives; Naixue’s Tea’s management expenses were mainly driven up by higher employee salary costs under the direct-operated system, pushing the ratio to 28%.

In contrast, Guming, Mixue Group, and Shanghai Auntie have management expense ratios in the single digits, highlighting the asset-light advantage of franchise models.

Financial data shows that in 2025, Naixue’s direct-operated store revenue was 2.42B yuan, accounting for 88% of total revenue; Bawang Chaji’s direct-operated business accounted for 12%.

Guojin Securities research report states that the intensification of takeout wars has increased industry price “involution,” and leading brands can leverage supply chain capabilities and scale bargaining power to offset some cost pressures, while small and medium brands face amplified cost pressures and are being rapidly phased out in competition. Looking back at 2025, brands with more mature franchise systems, stronger supply chain capabilities, and scale effects endured the “price war” pressure better, while direct brands with heavier cost burdens found it harder to squeeze out profits.

Sinking market expansion increases revenue, three brands enter the “Ten Thousand Store Club”

Over the past year, new tea brands continued to expand into small towns.

Based on financial data, Naixue’s Tea’s average store revenue in 2025 reached 2.63 million yuan, the highest among the six companies, but its store count was only 1,646, making it the only brand with a slight decrease in both average store revenue and total stores compared to the previous year.

Meanwhile, the store counts of Bawang Chaji, Tea Baidao, Shanghai Auntie, Guming, and Mixue Group increased to 7,108, 8,621, 11,449, 13,554, and 59,785 respectively, with the store network continuing to expand into lower-tier cities.

In 2025, the proportion of stores in third-tier and below cities for Tea Baidao, Shanghai Auntie, Mixue Group, and Guming was close to or over half, increasing by 1-3 percentage points from the previous year; among Naixue’s direct stores, only 132 were in third-tier and below cities, accounting for about 10%.

According to the “Tea Beverage Category Development Report 2026” published by the Red Restaurant Industry Research Institute, the tea beverage track has entered a stock game phase, with market concentration continuing to rise. Especially in first-tier cities, the number of tea shops is approaching saturation, with a slight decline in store numbers in 2025. Guojin Securities also believes that the current revenue-driving force of leading tea brands mainly comes from the expansion of franchise stores in sinking markets, driving procurement demand growth.

As competition in the new tea market enters the second half, the imagination space for capital markets remains constrained for leading companies.

A report from Beijing News Shell Finance shows that as of March 30, 2026, among five Hong Kong-listed new tea beverage companies, only Guming achieved growth since its IPO, nearly doubling in value. The other four declined since their IPOs, with Naixue’s market value dropping by 95%. Tea Baidao and Shanghai Auntie also fell by over 50%, while Mixue Group mostly held steady at the issue price.

Huang Hai, a consumer investor at Fengrui Capital, believes that Mixue Bingcheng and Guming rely on highly cost-effective single products (such as Mixue’s lemon water and Guming’s iced water) to offer products similar to bottled water from convenience stores. In the era of stock competition, direct brands like Naixue’s Tea face ongoing pressure between expansion and profitability, while companies with stronger franchise networks and supply chain efficiency, despite better profitability, may not necessarily achieve higher valuations in capital markets. This also means that as new tea companies increasingly rely on low prices and dense store layouts, it remains to be seen whether this will create more solid barriers or lead to more intense consumption.