Polymarket "Probability of the US and Iran reaching a permanent peace agreement before April 30" drops to 18%, down 17% in 24 hours

Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the probability of Polymarket’s “The US and Iran reaching a permanent peace agreement before April 30” has sharply dropped to 18%, down 17% in 24 hours. As of now, the total trading volume of contracts for the event “The US and Iran reaching a permanent peace agreement before the specified date” has exceeded $35 million.

The rules for this event contract are: if Iran and the US reach a permanent peace agreement before the specified date (11:59 PM Eastern Time), the market will be judged as “Yes”; otherwise, it will be judged as “No.” A permanent peace agreement refers to any agreement explicitly indicating that military hostilities between the US and Iran have ended or will be permanently halted, or using similar language clearly stating that military hostilities between the US and Iran will end permanently. Temporary agreements or final agreements that do not include permanent cessation of military hostilities between the US and Iran (e.g., a temporary extension of a two-week ceasefire announced on April 7, 2026) do not meet the criteria. The primary information source for this market is official information from the US and Iranian governments; other credible reports may also be referenced.

Tensions sharply escalated on the eve of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement’s expiration. Iran at one point refused to attend the Islamabad negotiations, accusing the US of obstructing a substantive deal. US President Trump announced that, at Pakistan’s request, the ceasefire would be extended but threatened that once the deadline passes, the US would continue bombing Iran, maintain the maritime blockade, and expand sanctions on Iran. US Vice President Vance canceled his trip to Pakistan. Currently, Iran has blocked the entrance and exit of the Strait of Hormuz and publicly displayed ballistic missiles in Tehran, claiming to be fully prepared for renewed conflict.

Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.