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Lately I've been looking at "address profiling/tag clustering" again. Honestly, I want to believe it, after all, I tend to look for definitive answers before taking action... But the more I look, the more uneasy I feel: an address labeled as "whale" or "smart money" might just be someone passing by and grabbing an airdrop, or it could be near a hot wallet of an exchange, and then it's all wiped out. Fund flow is like a puzzle or gossip— the more complete the picture, the easier it is to fill in the gaps with assumptions.
Not to mention the current wave of NFT royalty disputes; people talk about creator income, but on-chain it seems that secondary liquidity is more sensitive— when money tightens, they run first, and the labels haven't even caught up to update. My current approach is: treat profiling as a reference, mainly watch whether the holdings are becoming more concentrated, and whether transfers are "reflowing" into familiar pools— don’t be fooled by a pretty label chart into self-comfort.