LST / Re-pledging, the more I look at this wave, the more it seems like "breaking down returns into several layers for you to see."


The bottom layer is still that safety margin of staking, the ones layered on top mostly come from: people willing to pay for liquidity, protocol subsidies, and some are risk premiums (in plain terms, you're bearing tail risk for others).
Returns don't grow out of thin air; they are taken from others' costs or future expectations.

The risk is also quite straightforward: the same collateral being repeatedly promised, it looks lively on-chain, but when something really goes wrong, the correlation will suddenly max out;
plus the pitfalls of contracts/oracles/redemption paths, once liquidity shifts, that impermanent loss for LPs gets amplified.
Right now, I mainly focus on two charts: redemption discount/depth, and whether TVL will directly drop after incentives decrease.

By the way, about social mining, fan tokens, that "attention is mining" set... I don't really believe in metaphysics; attention can indeed be monetized, but it's more like a different packaging of subsidies.
When subsidies stop, what's left is the real demand.
Anyway, better to hold back a bit and not be hypnotized by high APR.
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