I have been observing the behavior of gold over the past few weeks, and interesting things are happening. Last week, it closed around $4,749 per ounce after reaching highs of $4,857, so there is volatility but with some resistance. What catches my attention is that most traders I know are divided: some see a rebound (51%), others see oscillations (31%), and some bet on a decline (18%).

From a technical standpoint, gold is in a tricky zone. There is a key point at $4,736 that acts as a battleground between bulls and bears. If it breaks upward strongly, we could see resistance at $4,871 and then at $4,993. If it falls, support levels are at $4,614 and lower at $4,479. The issue is that moving averages are very clustered, which means the market has not yet defined a clear direction.

Geopolitical factors remain a key element. The situation in the Middle East generates uncertainty, and that typically benefits gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, the Fed will release statements this week and the Beige Book, data that could move markets. Bank of America continues talking about two rate cuts in 2026, but there is debate about when the Fed will actually lower rates.

Recently, gold has rebounded nearly 15% from recent lows. Technically, we are above the 32.8% retracement, suggesting this correction could be only temporary. Some analysts speak of consolidation before another bullish move, considering the ongoing geopolitical tension.

There is also movement in silver: three weeks of small increases according to weekly candles. The gold/silver ratio has fallen to 62.59 times.

In summary, gold is in a rebound phase but remains technically indecisive. We need to watch that inflection point at 4736 to see if the bulls take control or if the bears manage to halt the decline. Volatility will continue as we resolve geopolitical uncertainty and await the Fed’s decisions.