I set a rule for myself: when I see charts like "stablecoin supply increased / ETF money coming in = about to take off," I hold back and don't jump to conclusions. Basically, these are more like thermometers, not igniters. Whether offshore funds come in, whether they buy spot after coming in, or whether they get hedged and offset—there are too many variables, and correlation can't be used as a definitive conclusion.

Recently, the airdrop season also feels similar. Tasks on platforms are so competitive that it’s like clocking in for work, with points skyrocketing, but on-chain liquidity hasn't increased accordingly, and slippage still discourages participation... Anyway, I only trust my own testing now: look at depth, check routing, try small orders—if you're not confident, just skip it.