Galaxy analysts warn that the CLARITY Act faces multiple obstacles, with about a 50% chance of passing before the midterm elections

BlockBeats News, April 21 — Galaxy Digital Research Director Alex Thorn warns that the crucial U.S. cryptocurrency legislation, the “CLARITY Act,” has entered a critical phase. If the review is delayed until after mid-May, the chances of passing in 2026 will sharply decline. Currently, the probability of the bill becoming law this year is estimated at about 50%, or even lower. Data from Polymarket also shows that its passage probability has dropped from 82% in February to 47%.

Thorn pointed out that the Senate schedule is currently packed with matters such as Iran military authorization, Department of Homeland Security funding, and presidential nominations, leaving little time for the bill. If Democrats regain the House after the November midterm elections, legislative progress could stall.

Although the bill was passed by the House in July last year with a bipartisan vote of 294-134, negotiations in the Senate are more complex, facing several obstacles. First, disagreements over stablecoin incentives were the main reason for delaying review from January. Second, the draft’s clause clarifying that non-custodial software developers do not qualify as “money transmitters” has faced opposition from law enforcement agencies. Additionally, on moral clauses, some Democrats are pushing to restrict government officials and their families from profiting from crypto assets during their terms. Finally, concerns over SEC authority and issues like vacant committee seats have added to the political complexity.

Thorn believes that a full Senate vote in July is “theoretically possible,” but it would require extraordinary political will and coordination.