Shouchuang Futures: The geopolitical situation may further escalate, and PX futures prices are following crude oil prices to stop falling and rebound.

Spot market, on April 1st, CFR China PX price was $1192/ton, down $37/ton from the previous trading day. On April 2nd, PX market offers for May delivery were $1256/ton, with June transactions at $1240/ton.
In terms of costs, Trump delivered a speech stating that in the next two to three weeks, extremely severe strikes will be carried out against Iran; if no agreement is reached, power plants in Iran will be targeted. The geopolitical situation may further escalate, causing international oil prices to rebound after a decline.
Regarding supply, Guangdong Petrochemical’s 2.6 million-ton PX unit has reduced its load to 70% due to raw material supply issues. Qingdao Lidong’s 1 million-ton PX was scheduled for maintenance on March 31st and is expected to restart in early May. Both Asian and domestic PX loads continued to decline this week. Currently, geopolitical conflicts may escalate further, key shipping routes remain blocked, and there is a possibility that PX loadings will be further reduced later.
On the demand side, with lower processing fees, PTA maintenance plans have increased; meanwhile, negative feedback from terminal users has emerged, and polyester and weaving operations have slowed down.
In summary, although demand margins have weakened, geopolitical tensions have escalated again, crude oil prices have rebounded sharply, and the expectation of tightening PX supply remains strong. The combined effect of rising costs and tightening supply suggests that short-term PX futures are likely to remain volatile with a slight upward bias. Attention should be paid to geopolitical developments, crude oil price trends, and changes in upstream and downstream plant operations. (First Capital Futures)