By monitoring large on-chain transfers and fluctuations in exchange hot and cold wallets, I also get the itch to interpret them as "smart money," but honestly, signals like these are too easily influenced by narratives.

For beginners, it's more practical to check GitHub and audit reports: first, see if the latest commits are maintained consistently, not just a sudden burst of activity after six months of silence; don't just look at whether the audit was "passed," but examine how high-risk issues were addressed and whether there was a re-audit.
Don't overlook permission upgrades either—how many people are required for multi-signature, what the threshold is, whether the logic can be changed with a single click in the smart contract... these are the foundation of "trustworthiness."
Anyway, I now prefer to slow down and verify the evidence chain rather than relying on wallet movements to guess the story.