Recently, I've been looking at the "Smart Money Address" screenshots of old bulls and bears again, and the more I look, the more I feel: tags, you can refer to them, but don’t treat them as gospel. An address today might be a whale, and tomorrow it could just be a hot wallet moving on an exchange; clustering is even more absurd—who knows if it’s the same group of people or just the same script changing disguises.

I also tend to be lazy and look at profiles myself, especially when the market is so noisy that my head is buzzing. But the details on the chain quickly give it away: a few days ago, I saw a so-called "long-term holder" address, first sending from 0x7c…a9 to a router contract, then splitting into 7 transactions into a new address, with gas used very evenly—basically deliberately washing it to look like retail investors. You can slap any label you want on this.

Now Layer 2s are competing in TPS, fees, and subsidies. They all talk big, but the on-chain fund flows are more honest: where the subsidies are thick, the bridges tend to gather there. Anyway, I now only treat "fund flow" as a thermometer of sentiment—don’t get too caught up in survivor bias… that’s all for now.