In the past couple of days, I’ve been seeing a bunch of takes that hard-link ETF fund flows with US stock market risk appetite, as if it were like a switch… Hearing it, I feel a little uneasy: the “on-chain data” we’re looking at isn’t that real-time or that objective.

With node syncing a bit slower, an RPC acting up, and the indexing service queuing up and re-computing for a moment, the transfer you see and the settlement you see may already be a “replay” from a few minutes ago. Not to mention that different tools use different standards—you think you’re watching live, but you’re actually watching a delayed broadcast.

So I’d rather just admit that I don’t know; I’d rather do less and not treat “on-chain” as a prophecy. Anyway, my rule is still the same: no adding positions, no chasing divine insight. I don’t need to be understood, but at least don’t let delayed data take my emotions for a ride.