Recently, I’ve again seen a bunch of people staring at whale addresses and copying homework—honestly, I like watching too, but don’t let your emotions get the better of you and charge in. Whether that one on-chain transaction is actually building a position or hedging can sometimes be wildly different: for example, if you buy spot while opening a short somewhere else, from the outside it looks like “adding to a position,” but it might actually be locking in volatility. If you follow along, then you end up being the one taking in their emotions.

I’m a bit old-fashioned: first, check whether they’re doing it in batches, whether they’re changing their position structure, then compare it with social-media hype and trading volume. When it’s really blowing up, you need to stay cooler… Also, lately, RWA and US Treasury yields have been used to compare against on-chain yield products—sounds tempting, but returns, in the end, are probability, not destiny. Anyway, I’d rather make a little less than be a background player in someone else’s hedging trade.