J.P. Morgan warns: If the disruption at Hormuz continues until mid-May, oil prices could soar past $150!

Cailian Press, April 3 (Editor: Bian Chun)
In a report released on Thursday, JPMorgan Chase stated that, in the short term, oil prices could rise to $120 to $130 per barrel, and if the disruption of oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz persists until mid-May, there is even a risk of prices breaking through $150.

JPMorgan’s baseline assumption is that, after a period of supply tightness and inventory decline, the supply disruption issue in the Strait of Hormuz will ultimately be resolved through negotiations.

The report pointed out that, under this scenario, oil prices are expected to remain above $100 per barrel throughout the second quarter. Subsequently, driven by partial reopening of the strait and gradual recovery of oil inventories, oil prices are forecasted to decline in the second half of 2026.

JPMorgan warned that the magnitude and duration of the oil price surge will be key factors in determining the severity of broader macroeconomic shocks. If high oil prices persist, it could exacerbate demand weakness and potentially trigger an economic recession.

On Thursday, oil prices surged sharply amid volatile trading. Previously, U.S. President Trump stated that the U.S. would continue to strike Iran. By the close, Brent crude futures rose by $7.87, or 7.78%, to $109.03 per barrel. U.S. crude futures increased by $11.42, or 11.41%, to $111.54 per barrel.

Reports this week indicated that, as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the Trump administration is evaluating the risk of oil prices rising to $150 per barrel or even higher. The report also said that the government currently considers oil prices above $100 as a “baseline scenario,” and does not rule out the extreme possibility of prices reaching $200.

The average U.S. gasoline price this week has surpassed $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022. Energy expert Patrick De Haan said that if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume traffic in the short term, U.S. gasoline prices could break through $5 per gallon within a month, setting a new record high.

Currently, analysts and investors are closely watching when and how the energy transit chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, will reopen to ease the severe supply shocks faced by Asian economies.

On Thursday, as more news about the Strait of Hormuz emerged, market sentiment regarding partial reopening of the strait improved.

According to domestic media citing Iranian official sources on Thursday, Iran and Oman are drafting an agreement aimed at implementing “traffic regulation” for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, but emphasizing that they will not restrict ship passage. Meanwhile, the UK stated that dozens of countries are discussing plans to end the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz.

(Cailian Press, Bian Chun)