Lately, watching the market feels more like reading interest-rate moods: when rates tick higher, everyone’s patience gets thinner; the order book looks lighter, and it takes only a small needle to prick out emotional swings. Once risk appetite pulls back, positions are actually transmitted fast—first leverage gets reduced, then spot traders also don’t want to catch falling knives; once liquidity and depth thin out, chasing rallies becomes even more like making things hard for yourself.

Recently, there’s been another wave of testnet incentive schemes and points expectations—every day in the group everyone’s guessing whether the mainnet will issue tokens or not. I’m not saying you can’t take the opportunity, but this kind of expectation feeds on sentiment and timing the most. If the macro backdrop doesn’t cooperate, no matter how many points there are, suddenly there won’t be anyone left to take the bag. Anyway, I treat complexity as the enemy: if I can’t understand the returns, I don’t touch it; if I can understand the risks, I take less. That’s it for now.