Bitcoin's four bull and bear cycles tell you, will it drop more than 80% again this time?

Today, let's briefly discuss each bull market since Bitcoin's birth in 2008, focusing on the depth of retracements from local highs, to help everyone more accurately judge the current market trend.

First bull market (2011): peak at $32, trough at $2, maximum retracement 94%. This stage was in the very early geek circle, market liquidity was extremely poor, retracement was extreme, and it has limited reference value.

Second bull market (2013): peak at $1,150, trough at $150, maximum retracement 87%. Bitcoin first entered the public eye, but the exchange system was very immature, and the market structure was very fragile.

Third bull market (2017): peak at $19,000, trough at $3,200, maximum retracement 83%. Characterized by ICO bubbles, high leverage, and rampant junk assets, the retracement was still deep, but a convergence trend was beginning to appear.

Fourth bull market (2025): peak at $69,000, trough at $15,000, maximum retracement 78%. Institutions started to enter, influenced by spot ETF market expectations and mature hedging systems of mining companies, and the retracement continued to converge.

From these four bull and bear cycles, a core conclusion can be drawn: the maximum retracement of each Bitcoin bull market has been systematically decreasing, and this trend is also a key basis for judging whether this bear market will drop another 80%.

Analysis suggests that the reasons behind the continuous convergence of maximum retracement in each bull and bear cycle are threefold:

First, the market participation structure has changed. Initially, early participants were geeks and gamblers, but now includes ETFs, family offices, listed companies, and national-level holders, making the underlying chips more sticky.

Second, the market pricing model has changed. Early pricing was mainly driven by sentiment; now, it is supported by miner costs, institutional building costs, and ETF holding costs, beginning to form a "hard bottom."

Third, the market leverage liquidation efficiency is higher. This is reflected in faster margin calls, more concentrated liquidity, and a significantly reduced probability of a "death spiral" in extreme cases.

According to market data, the current Bitcoin market bull point is $126k, with a low at $60k, and the retracement is only 52%, far lower than the previous round's maximum of 77%.