Recently, I saw someone connect three things: stablecoin supply, ETF net inflows, and off-exchange funds, saying basically "Stablecoin rise = money coming in = time to push." That made me a bit nervous... correlation does not equal causation. I used to also focus on these indicators, and when the chart went up, I’d get itchy to leverage, but it often turned out that the reasons for entering were grand, while exit rules were vague, and in the end, market education happened.

Now I care more about: if this wave of "money" is really flowing in, who holds it, where is it headed, and how do I exit if I’m wrong. On-chain data tools and tagging systems have recently been criticized for lagging or even misleading, which I understand. No matter how good the data is, it’s just a streetlamp, not a steering wheel. Anyway, I only use small leverage, clearly set stop-losses, and don’t consider myself an exception in statistics.