According to a Reuters survey, two-thirds of economists predict that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates to 1% by the end of June.

What does 1% mean?

Japan’s benchmark interest rate has been raised from negative rates all the way to 1%, meaning the yen is no longer “free money.” Once the largest source of funding for global carry trades sees its costs rise, positions worth hundreds of billions of dollars will be closed out—by the hundreds of billions of dollars.

How exactly does this affect the crypto market?

Yen stays at low interest rates → borrow yen to buy BTC → BTC rises

The yen begins to hike rates → borrowing costs rise → liquidate positions and sell BTC → BTC falls

This isn’t a guess; this is a historical pattern. The time the Bank of Japan adjusted its YCC in 2022 was when a torrent of money flooded out of risk assets worldwide.

So the question now is—

The market has almost “priced in” a Bank of Japan rate hike, but the timing is uncertain.

Is it a hike this month or in June? What happens on the Iran front determines this window.

If Japan truly raises to 1% before June, global liquidity will tighten, and it won’t just hit BTC—U.S. stocks, the Nikkei, and all assets supported by yen interest-rate differentials will have to be repriced.

1% may not sound like much, but for an economy that has maintained zero interest rates—or even negative interest rates—for many years, taking this step means global capital markets will have to sway along with it. #WCTC交易赛瓜分800万USDT $OPN