The Middle East conflict may escalate further, highlighting the value of cyclical price increase mainline configurations

Recently, tensions in the Middle East have escalated again, fueling the full fermentation of the price increase cycle logic, with multiple rally tracks strengthening simultaneously. In terms of individual stocks, as of 14:05 on April 2nd, Juxing Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (603477.SH), CNOOC Engineering (600339.SH), Heshun Petroleum (603353.SH), Lanyan Holdings (000968.SZ) hit the daily limit up, Jereh Group (002353.SZ), China Animal Husbandry Group (600195.SH), COSCO Shipping Holdings (601872.SH), COSCO Shipping Energy (601975.SH) rose over 6%, with active funds broadly involved, highlighting opportunities for related sector allocations.

On the news front, U.S. President Trump recently stated that he will deliver a heavy blow to Iran in the next 2-3 weeks. The escalation of geopolitical tensions has sharply increased the risks to crude oil supply, with countries rushing to stockpile oil, raising expectations for oil prices to rise easily and be difficult to fall.

From the perspective of cyclical commodity rotation patterns, looking back at the bull markets of cyclical commodities in 2005, 2009, and 2020, the price increases followed the rotation pattern of “Gold starts → Silver follows → Copper confirms → Oil explodes → Agriculture concludes.” Currently, non-ferrous metals have already started, petrochemicals are taking over, and agricultural products are still warming up; the upward trend in prices has not yet ended.

To keep pace with this round of price increases, focus can be placed on three major E Fund thematic ETFs:

1. Oil ETF E Fund (159181): “Three Big Oil Companies” account for nearly 40% of the weight, fully exposed to oil price beta. Compared to similar oil indices, it leans more towards upstream and midstream, with stronger resource attributes.

2. Agriculture ETF E Fund (562900): Covers breeding, planting, and feed, aligning with the main theme of agricultural price increases.

3. Chemical Industry ETF E Fund (516570): Packs together leading companies in petrochemicals, basic chemicals, and coal chemicals industries. With a scale of 2.32 billion yuan, it ranks first among ETFs of similar size, with a total management and custody fee of only 0.20% per year, the lowest fee rate among comparable indices.

Each of these three main lines plays its role, comprehensively covering this cycle’s price increase trend, suitable for current allocation needs.