Thailand Central Bank Cuts 2026 Growth Forecast

Thailand faces slower growth this year due to the Iran war, with almost “no limits” to worst-case economic scenarios if the conflict continues. Assistant Governor Chayawadee Chai-anant said growth in Thailand, one of the most exposed global economies due to its high reliance on imported energy, is slowing, while tourism is declining. Tourism from Gulf countries fell to close to zero in March. Those numbers have yet to fully rebound, and these wealthy visitors typically account for 7% of total tourism spending in Thailand, a senior central bank official told Reuters. The number of tourists from Malaysia, another key growth driver for the sector, has also been declining. The central bank revised its baseline GDP growth forecast to 1.3% for 2026, assuming the war ends in H2 of this year. This is down from its December forecast of 1.9%. In February, the government had projected growth of between 1.5% and 2.5%. Inflation under this scenario is forecast to reach 3.5%.