Recently, I've seen everyone citing stablecoin supply and ETF inflows as "evidence that prices will inevitably rise," honestly, the correlation looks convincing, but it may not be causal. An increase in stablecoins could be a reserve, or it could just be holding in a different form; ETF inflows and outflows are more like the rhythm of large funds adjusting their positions, not a notification for us to cheer.

Now the fee rates are extreme again, and the group is arguing fiercely: is it a reversal or just more bubble squeezing? I actually want to turn off the candlestick charts and zone out for a while... When I come back, I only want to focus on one thing: are these funds truly willing to slowly accumulate at low levels, not just driven by leverage and emotions.

I don't need to be understood, I’ll just follow my own slow perspective: keep the position smaller, the cycle longer, and don't be pushed into decisions by things that "look very much like causality." That’s all for now.