Institutional Outlook for Polyethylene in 2030: Surplus Capacity Worsening Year by Year

Institutional statistics show that the global polyethylene capacity growth rate is expected to be more than twice the demand growth rate. By 2030, polyethylene demand is projected to grow by approximately 3.3 million tons per year, while capacity is increasing at an average rate of 6.7 million tons per year. The growth rates in 2026 and 2027 may be particularly strong. Of the 34 million tons per year of reserve capacity by 2030, about 85% is under construction, mainly including large steam cracking units supported by major oil and chemical companies. This surge in supply will drive a restructuring of the global polyethylene market. New, lower-cost large facilities will replace less competitive older assets. Starting in 2026, the shutdown rate of capacity in Europe and developed East Asia (including Japan and South Korea) will accelerate. (Cailian Press)