I’m looking at the BTC hourly chart and I see an interesting picture. This is not panic or chaotic selling—everything looks like methodical distribution with the formation of a structure for a further drop. The price isn’t falling in free fall, but instead building levels. This is an important point that you can’t ignore if you take analysis seriously.

The news backdrop adds pressure, and the situation in the Middle East may temporarily shut down part of the infrastructure. Thin liquidity at the start of the week means sharp moves—this is a fact. Plus, I’ll note that CME closed on Friday at 65900$, and now the price is kind of “nailed” to this zone. Not a coincidence.

My main scenario is like this: at the open, we wait for an active seller, then a breakout of local supports and an update of last week’s minimum around 62422$. Then we look at the reaction and volume. While the market is short-biased, ignoring that is simply impossible—trading against the structure is foolish.

Where could everything change? If BTC breaks through and holds above 68218$, that’s a direct signal that the sellers have been broken. Then the short plan is completely canceled. But as long as that hasn’t happened, ignoring this drop means taking risk without any reason. The structure is bearish (short-biased), and you can’t ignore it.