Amid the complex and unpredictable situation, optimistic sentiments about the possible end of the war are rising. The Associated Press reported on Wednesday that officials in the Middle East said they are making progress; the US and Iran have "principally agreed" to extend the ceasefire agreement to allow for more diplomatic efforts.

This is a major news release amid mutual threats between the US and Iran, but it was quickly denied by both sides. A US official told CNN, "The United States has not officially agreed to extend the ceasefire agreement; we are still in contact with Iran to push for an agreement."
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ismail Bagheri said that, so far, no confirmation has been made regarding any speculation about extending the ceasefire, and negotiations are currently only being mediated through Pakistan.
However, news of the US and Iran resuming negotiations this week is largely confirmed; the US lead remains Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump said in an interview with Fox News on Tuesday that US military actions against Iran are "close to ending," and Iran is "eager" to reach an agreement.
Additionally, early Wednesday morning, Trump suddenly posted on social media claiming, "China is very happy that I have permanently opened the Strait of Hormuz. I did this not only for them but for the whole world. This situation will never happen again. They have agreed not to supply weapons to Iran... We are engaging in efficient and productive cooperation! Isn’t this better than war? But remember, if war is necessary, we are very good at it — much better than anyone else!"
This post seems to both hint at the end of the war and contain subtle warnings, echoing US and Western media rumors about China supplying weapons to Iran and China enabling Iran to use Chinese satellites to strike US forces.
Currently, Trump clearly has no leverage to seriously confront China over Iran. If China were truly unhappy, a few small moves could easily increase the US's disadvantages in the Middle East.
The US blockade of Iran has lasted two days. The US claims that within 24 hours before the blockade of ports, no ships broke through, and six ships crossed the strait but turned back under US instructions. Western media reported that among the turned-back ships was China's Fu Xing, but this ship departed from the UAE's Hamriyah port, not an Iranian port, and thus should not be subject to US restrictions. However, the ship was blacklisted by the US in 2023 due to issues related to Iran.
Iranian Armed Forces Central Headquarters spokesperson Hatam Anbia said on Wednesday that if the US continues maritime blockade causing insecurity for Iranian commercial ships and oil tankers, Iran's armed forces will not allow any further import or export activities in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and Red Sea.
The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been widely opposed worldwide; the UK, France, and others refused to participate. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak stated, "We do not support the blockade." He emphasized that, regardless of pressure, the UK will not be drawn into a war with Iran.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said on Tuesday when asked about the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, "In the context of the parties having reached a temporary ceasefire arrangement, the US escalates military deployment and adopts targeted blockade actions, which will only intensify contradictions, escalate tensions, undermine the fragile ceasefire, and further threaten the safety of strait navigation. This is dangerous and irresponsible."
The situation is very complicated, but I personally believe that the US and Iran are highly likely to extend the ceasefire agreement due on the 21st. Although the second round of negotiations may not produce a comprehensive ceasefire framework, substantial progress is very possible. Both sides are clearly in communication.
Preparations for the second round of talks suggest some groundwork has already been laid. Most importantly, both sides have the will to end the war. Especially for Trump, the stock market has already been preemptively pricing in an extension of the ceasefire. If negotiations fail, the war could escalate seriously again, causing market reactions that Trump cannot afford. He should be strongly motivated to avoid such a scenario.